So the cloud that has been looming over Boris Johnson’s leadership has finally arrived today. 54 ‘no confidence’ letters have been sent to Sir Graham Brady, chief of the Conservative governing body, the 1922 committee.
Rebels, and indeed allies of the PM had been expecting this, but possibly not quite as immediately. Parliament has been in recess over the last couple of weeks, and today is the first day back.
A confidence vote is a vote that takes place between Tory MPs, and they will vote between 6-8PM this evening. The Prime Minister needs 180 votes to win the vote, which is half of the number of Tory MPs, plus one. The number of Tories in parliament at the moment stands at 359.
Confidence votes are never a good thing for a leader. The widespread expectation is that Boris Johnson will win this evening, but in these votes it is possible for someone to win arithmetically, but lose politically. Theresa May won her confidence vote, but the margin was tiny. She was out of the door within six months.
“This vote marks the beginning of the end for Boris Johnson”
Sir Kier Starmer – Speaking on LBC this morning
Famously, Margaret Thatcher won a confidence vote, however again, she didn’t win it by a convincing number of votes, and it had to go to a second ballot against her challenger, Michael Hesseltine. She went on to lead the country for some time after this, but it is often seen as the beginning of the downfall for ‘The Iron Lady’.
If the Prime Minister loses today, it will go to an internal leadership contest with Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Dominic Raab being touted as his replacement. An argument that falls in the Prime Minister’s favour is that the Tories don’t seem to have their ducks in order as to who will replace Boris, should he come out on the wrong side of tonights vote.
There are rumours that there will be a reshuffle in the coming week should Johnson win tonight, in order to reward the loyalty of those supporting him, but more it seems to punish those that are rebelling against him.
The announcement of the outcome is expected at around 9PM tonight so as the Jubilee boos, and the Partygate booze still ring in the ears of the electorate, will Boris once again come out on top? It’s impossible to say.
CScottJourno 